Bolivia’s Political Rift: Morales, Arce, And New Alliances

Bolivia faces growing political doubt as ex-president Evo Morales plans to form a new party while leaving the ruling Movement for Socialism. At the same time, President Luis Arce seems ready for another term; his bid boosts friction in a field marked by internal splits plus legal issues.

Morales And His New Path

Evo Morales, who led Bolivia from 2006 to 2019, is finalizing plans to break definitively with the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS). Long considered the party’s central figure, he now threatens the future unity of a group that has dominated Bolivian politics for nearly two decades. On one side stands Morales, a charismatic but embattled icon with multiple legal obstacles. On the other hand, President Luis Arce reinforced his hold on the official MAS party to win another term in the general elections on August 17. The break between these two leaders, who once worked together, raises doubts over the path Bolivia’s leadership will take with its reform plan. Morales chose to run for the Front for Victory, a party that selected him as its sole candidate. Morales will present a new political group at a meeting scheduled on March 31, which further separates him from the MAS.

Meanwhile, Arce, the country’s current leader, is leaning on internal support from MAS loyalists, many of whom have proclaimed him the natural choice for re-election in 2025–2030. Despite significant challenges—particularly a faltering economy—Arce appears ready to bank on his incumbent status, maintaining that stepping away would signal an admission of failed governance.

Evo Morales, 63, was the country’s first Indigenous president and remains a prominent figure for many Bolivians. Yet his departure from the presidency in 2019—triggered by what he calls a “coup d’état” and allegations of electoral fraud—left a complicated legacy. When he returned from political exile, Morales endeavored to reclaim his role as principal leader of the MAS. However, both Bolivia’s Judicial and Electoral bodies recognized Grover García, an Arce ally, as the party’s new head in November, dislodging Morales from a position he held for nearly three decades.

That defeat, combined with Morales’s ongoing legal troubles, has weighed heavily on his political ambitions. Se busca arrestarlo por su supuesta participación en un caso de tráfico humano agravado; se le retiene en la región de Cochabamba, donde cuenta con amplio respaldo de sindicatos locales. Algunos dicen que Morales parece usar a sus seguidores para oponerse a las autoridades. While the Supreme Electoral Tribunal’s rule that presidential re-election may only occur “once” (continuously or discontinuously) poses an additional obstacle, Morales is moving ahead with the assumption that his status as FPV candidate will break through any potential legal barriers.

This path complicates matters further for the broader Bolivian left, historically united under the MAS banner. Morales’s new front threatens to siphon off supporters who revere him as a revolutionary symbol. On paper, the FPV has confirmed him for the 2025 election. However, some party members caution that if Morales’s legal situation worsens—or if disagreements over leadership mount—they may resort to another candidate. For now, Morales remains confident in his legitimacy, accusing the central government of orchestrating measures to restrict his movement and hamper his political comeback.

Arce And The Bid For Re-Election

Although closely associated with Morales during his years as finance minister, President Luis Arce finds himself at odds with his one-time mentor. The gap between them began to widen in late 2021. Morales has referred to Arce as “the worst president Bolivia has had,” while Arce calls Morales his “greatest opposition.” Such acrimony within the left is unprecedented for a movement that once prided itself on unity.

According to political analysts, Arce has little choice but to seek a new term. Having governed since late 2020, he presents himself as the steady hand in a tumultuous era. This narrative grows difficult by Bolivia’s current money problems: a lack of dollars, regular fuel shortages, plus inflation that reached 9.97 % in 2024, the highest rate since 2008. Yet the party in charge says that any other candidate shows defeat. They stress that Arce, at age 61, may fix the reforms he started if given another term. At party meetings, the frequent refrain is that Arce should lead Bolivia until 2030, focusing on stabilizing the economy and continuing the social programs that initially gained him popularity. Yet skeptics argue that Arce must address claims of nepotism and an overreliance on propping up a commodities-based economy if he hopes to maintain credibility.

The Wider Political Landscape

As Bolivia’s two main figures grow farther apart, other groups see a chance to use the split. Opposition forces led by ex-president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga and businessman Samuel Doria Medina suggest forming a coalition to remove MAS from office while using the left’s internal splits. The synergy they envision would offer voters a third way—one that rejects the perceived authoritarian inclinations of both Arce and Morales.

The overarching backdrop to these maneuvers is the national election scheduled for August 17, when Bolivians will choose their next president. With allegations of fraud haunting elections past—particularly the 2019 debacle—confidence in the process is fragile. Observers and international organizations have called for increased transparency, more balanced electoral authorities, and political campaign regulations that minimize manipulative practices.

Currently the conflict puts two main figures against each other who aim to define Bolivia’s future. Morales wants a fourth term by building on his past work plus his skill to get local support. The leader must bring enough order with progress to show he merits another term. The 2025 election will reveal whether these steps harm the left permanently or change alliances.

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Bolivian politics hinges on this rivalry. Will Morales win with a new party while ignoring legal bounds? Or will Arce use his current position to maintain control of MAS? With rising prices and debates over democracy as well as methods of rule, Bolivia’s political stage remains tense, ready for a challenge that could alter the country’s political course for a long time. The outcome could signal not just who presides over the next term but how Bolivia navigates its evolving identity in a landscape rife with both promise and tension.