Data reflects political facts and often envision their outcome
Leer en Español: La economía de Trump: ¿por qué abandonar NAFTA?
Quitting NAFTA has a lot to do with an improved chance for the American president be re-elected in the nearest primary. Defeating Hillary Clinton in 3 out of every 5 states displayed the self-evident power of popular nuisance, a tool whose incisiveness was felt by Venezuelan AD and COPEI parties in 1991. The rest is history.
Put in numbers, Donald Trump’s voting base consists of 62.99 million people, only 2.86 million short from the Democrats. States, where the president got elected, are 21% poorer than those where the tycoon was not favored according to data from the United States Census Bureau. Donald Trump triumphs where economic sensitivity is acutely felt.
The president’s path towards a greater share of the American history depends upon his capacity to please an additional 1.43 million households in 1,460 days. Cutting NAFTA and luring all American corporations from Mexico alone would transport 0.68 million jobs back to the United States.
Read also: If NAFTA fails, Latin America wins
Closing NAFTA implies closing two of U.S’ main gates to the world, but it also means that public investments will reach more American households as processes are no longer outsourced. This Keynesian strategy was used to recover the global markets from the 1933 crisis.
As a real estate and construction executive, Donald Trump would find a special interest into the deterioration of the U.S. and Mexican bilateral relationships as an excuse to unleash the 12-14 billion dollar border wall project that would have an impact in the reduction of 44.24% of the household median income gap between Democratic and Republican voters
In the other hand, economic relations with Canada would remain stable in a post NAFTA scenario as the Keystone pipeline was approved in March 2017, the 8 billion initiative to transport 0.83 million barrels of oil a day could hedge the short-term effect on tariffs in a bilateral trade of 1.8 billion dollars a day in goods and services. There is no benefit in disengagement.
The sudden turn of the United States of America and Great Britain from the world stage into a local juncture responds to the overall phenomenon of inequality, a contingency whose treatment often requires sacrificing market productivity for political stability. If Donald Trump’s ultimate goal is to remain in power then following his presidential claim to end NAFTA or heavily changing it would create a good environment for said purpose. His stakeholders are disclosed unlike his real ambition for power.
“As a President of the United States, I will only put America first. Just like you, as the leaders of your countries, will always and should always put your countries first”- Donald Trump in the General Assembly, New York, September 19.
Latin American Post | David Eduardo Rodríguez Acevedo
Copy edited by Laura Rocha Rueda