Brexit: United Kingdom’s bone of contention

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The past days haven't been good for Theresa May: her position is in danger and the Brexit was not supported in the parliament, what will be her next move?

In spite of all the efforts that Theresa May made in order for the British parliament to approve the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union, these were in vain. The vote, which should have happened on December 11, 2018, was postponed because of a possible defeat. Even so, with the voting on January 15, the rejection of Brexit was overwhelming, as it received 432 votes against and 202 in favor.

The humiliating defeat leaves a weakened prime minister. However, she said she would not give up because "she has a duty to comply with the democratic decision" taken by the English in 2016 when the ballot was voted in favor of leaving the European Union.
The problem did not end there, because at the end of the vote, the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, raised the idea of a 'vote of confidence' against the current British Government, as mentioned by EuroNews. This means that May's position as prime minister is in danger, since the deputies will vote according to article 2 of the Parliaments Law for or against the premise "The House does not trust Her Majesty's Government", stresses the same media.

If the vote is supported, a period of 14 days begins "in which she or another candidate will have the option of proposing again an Executive with the approval of the Parliament", as indicated by El Comercio. If concrete support from a new government is not reached, the preparation of the general elections in advance is automatically started, elections that the opposition has been asking for some time. On the other hand, if the motion is not approved, May continues as ruler. Fortunately, the result of the vote gave her a break because, for only 19 votes, May remains as the head of the United Kingdom

Also read: Brexit: Theresa May's Achilles heel

The chaotic January 15

Given the results, May is expected to propose a new plan. She has until Monday, January 21 to create it, and it is possible that she meets with the different political forces to try to reach an agreement, in order to arouse greater support within Parliament.

Now, if no agreement is reached, there are several scenarios of what would happen to the United Kingdom and the European Union. 

The first, and the most feasible, is that the Brexit will be carried out without reaching an agreement. This would generate a disorderly way out and without any "cushion" for the economy and the business sector. Already the Bank of England warned of the economic consequences that the country would have, at the same time as the increase in the figures of inflation and unemployment

Another possible scenario is to consult the British citizens again through a second referendum. As stated by La Vanguardia, contemplating this scenario would be beneficial for the European Union and would seek to reverse the decision taken in 2016. Although May has highlighted on several occasions that it is not possible, the opposition and those against it. see as a favorable solution.

On the other hand, there is the option that the stipulated date to carry out the Brexit be extended. The initial date was March 29. However, given the recent outlook, May can request a longer deadline and ask the European Union to exercise an extension on the date. For this, it needs the approval of the European members, countries such as Spain and France have announced that this is a feasible solution in order to "not prolong an uncertainty that damages the interests of citizens and companies", as indicated by El País.

Brussels is already contemplating this option and the extension would take place in mid-July, just after the Parliamentary elections of the European Union. If that were the case, it would prevent the United Kingdom from holding elections to participate in Parliament's seats; seats that would be empty before leaving the United Kingdom.

The final scenario is to revoke the Brexit. This option had not been taken into account, until the judgment of the European Court of December. This option would occur in the worst case and, according to La Vanguardia, it would be deactivated "unilaterally, that is, without the approval of the other member states".

May has little time to resolve the historical Brexit political process. The proposal presented on Monday will have to satisfy the majority of Parliament to try to start with an organized exit and with the least possible impact

LatinAmerican Post | Laura Viviana Guevara Muñoz

Translated from "Brexit: la manzana de la discordia en el Reino Unido"