Brexit: Theresa May’s Achilles heel

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Failing to reach a better Brexit agreement, May could lose power and leave her country at a disadvantage with the European Union

British Prime Minister Theresa May needs to achieve a better Brexit agreement in Brussels. Her objective is that the United Kingdom does not remain without an economic, commercial and political link with the European Union.

Leer en español: Brexit: el talón de Aquiles de Theresa May

However, the European Union itself, and according to RTVE of Spain, has said that what has been agreed, such as preventing the submission of a border between Northern Ireland (part of the United Kingdom) and the Republic of Ireland (part of the European Union), as well as paying more to EU products, among others, cannot be negotiated. Now, what would be the outlook for the United Kingdom without a better Brexit agreement?

Theresa May has postponed, as reported by La Vanguardia, the voting of the British parliamentary, in which they would decide if they are for or against Brexit. Immediately, she started a tour through Europe to reach a better agreement in order to avoid the fall of her divorcing project with the European Union.

Failure to reach an agreement, the United Kingdom would not negotiate "a common market of goods, a lax agreement on services, maximum possible cooperation in defense and facilities for the mobility of citizens", highlights ABC.

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In addition, without achieving a better agreement, Theresa May would leave the power and, instead, the leader of the Labor opposition, Jeremy Corbyn would enter.

But, to understand what situation the United Kingdom is facing, LatinAmerican Post spoke with Gonzalo Ortiz, a political scientist at the Pontificia Universidad Javeriana and professor at Universidad Minuto de Dios.

According to Ortiz, the United Kingdom's situation is not very easy, because "On one hand, there are the radicals who say that the result of the elections needs to be respected. Also, it must be respected that the United Kingdom should leave the European. On the other hand, if the country leaves, there will be very strong economic consequences, commercial flights, commercial exchange, which would create a difficult unemployment problem to control."

"Voting again on Brexit. There are at least a million signatures that support that idea," says Ortiz about an exit that the United Kingdom would have to establish if, it is better to stay in the EU to avoid running out of agreements with it or losing all possibility of agreement.

And Theresa May?

For the expert, Theresa May's maneuverability is very fragile in the British Parliament, as she does not have favorable support. In addition, as reported by El Mundo of Spain, Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn has been pressured by several members of his party to make a motion of censure and remove May from power.

If this happens, there could be elections to replace May with his fragile leadership, which is leading the United Kingdom down a dead end.

In newspapers such as El País of Spain, there is a talk that Theresa May should take a position and leadership such as that exercised by Margaret Thatcher to achieve the best Brexit agreement she wants with the EU and unify the British parliament.

However, for Ortiz "Thatcher was the "iron lady", she had credibility, she had a strong party, she had the majorities in the parliament, she set the agenda. May does not have that character, she does not have charisma, and she does not have leadership; half of his cabinet has resigned and has not managed to have a great capacity to call. They cannot convince the Labor Party to approve their policies, so they are very weak."

Then, if the United Kingdom fails to improve the agreements with the EU, it will be forced to change its political leadership towards the Labor Party, who, without a doubt, will call a new Brexit in which the reintegration of the United Kingdom will probably be decided. This would end with the divorce aspiration promoted by May.

LatinAmerican Post | Edwin Gustavo Guerrero Nova

Translated from: 'Brexit ¿El talón de Aquiles de Theresa May?'