Ecuador Elections: Is Correísmo Back?

According to the polls, Ecuador will define the general elections on February 7 with two clear candidates for a second round: the correista Andrés Arauz and the christian liberal Guillermo Lasso. Likewise, despite the worsening of the COVID-19 pandemic, the National Electoral Council (CNE) of Ecuador reiterated that according to the electoral calendar, the general elections must be carried out as stipulated.

The vast majority of opinion polls published this month selected the candidate supported by former President Rafael Correa, Andrés Arauz, as the winner of the first round for the party of the Ecuadorian left, with an average vote intention of around 35, 4%. In contrast, according to ten polls released in January, the CREO movement candidate, Guillermo Lasso, won only two polls with an average of 26.3% of the votes.

Elections in the midst of the multiple crisis

With the arrival of the elections, and in the disastrous economic and health panorama increased by the pandemic, Ecuador is in unrest and social resignation. In this panorama, political conflicts have not ceased to be visualized.

Although there are 16 candidates, there are not 16 visions of the country in Ecuador. There is also no competition for ideas and projects, but rather man-made laws between the political class and the indifference of a part of the population (although 94% of those surveyed think that the country's direction is wrong, according to a survey by Profiles de Opinion published at the end of 2020).

In the Post-COVID19 reality, Ecuador will have to survive the crisis in the coming years, the region is in difficulties and faces enormous vaccination challenges. It will also lay the foundations for solving great historical problems, consolidating democracy and eliminating corruption, but with structural adjustments, transparency and accountability.

Final line of the electoral process

The electoral process in Ecuador will be monitored by 2,134 national observers and 225 international observers from entities such as the European Union, the Organization of American States (OAS), the Union of Electoral Organizations of the Americas (Uniore) and the World Electoral Organization of the United Nations. The electoral campaigns, as well as the entire propaganda system, began on December 31 and will end at midnight next Thursday, from that moment the election will remain silent for voters to reflect on their vote without information bombs or prejudices. of the crisis the country is experiencing.

Voters will have up to 4 minutes to exercise their voting rights; All voting participants must wear masks, wash their hands with sanitizing gel and maintain a social distance of 2 meters. There is no fixed voting schedule, everyone can vote during business hours, unless they are sick with COVID19 or another illness.

Not much abstentionism is expected, since the Ecuadorian electoral law fines people who do not go to vote for just cause. Infected people must present justification at the center or branch of the Ministry of Public Health.

Also read: Political Outlook in Latin America for 2021

This will be the first election of the year in our region, the dispute between the leftist ruling party and the conservatives could be defined this same February 7, since the rest of the candidates have not rebounded in the polls.

Rafael Correa

The popular Ecuadorian leader, in office since the victory of his successor and former vice president, Lenín Correa, awaits the victory of his candidate to return to his country. The former president has already stated in the media that if Arauz gets the presidency, it will be inevitable that Moreno's actions, which Correa calls corrupt, will be investigated.

Additionally, this would be a new respite for the Latin American left, which had lost important allies in countries like Argentina, Ecuador, and Bolivia (after the coup). Thus, another who would be victorious would be the Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, since he would regain another important ally and ease the "diplomatic siege" that countries such as Colombia, the United States, Brazil and other right-wing governments have erected in the region.