Elections in the United States: Democrats thwart Republican red wave

The mid-term elections, or MidTerm, as they are known in English, were held on Tuesday, November 8. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 senators, and various governorships or local positions were elected. The polls gave an overwhelming victory for the Republicans. The omen was quite discouraging for the government party that today controls both the Senate (with a tiny majority), the House of Representatives, and the presidency. However, without finishing the count of all the states, the results have surprised the majority: a Democratic party that does not give up and is not willing to lose without a fight.

Until the last moment, the blues refuse to lose control of the Senate, although they seem to have given up their advantage in the House. This election, so close, must be defined by recount, or even by second rounds.

What Does A House Control By Republicans Mean?

As the trend indicates, the ruling party comes out of the elections beaten. The House of Representatives passes into the hands of the conservatives. Although it is an important achievement, it knows little. First, because the victory is tiny, this will prevent them from being able to legislate with very conservative policies that drive away the most moderate. They will also have to count on each vote to be able to pass or block initiatives

Inflation, a battered economy, and a war in Ukraine were not enough for the opposition to achieve a great victory in the Chamber. It had already happened with Bill Clinton (losing 54 congressmen) in 1994, with Barack Obama (minus 63 legislative seats) in 2010; or with Trump (reducing by 40 seats) in 2018. So the question was not whether Republicans won seats, but how many. For now, confirmed, there are 199 (others estimate 197) for the Conservatives, and 172 for the government party. 64 (or 66) remain to be defined, most in blue counties. Whoever exceeds 218 will have stayed with the Chamber, which, in addition to legislating, can investigate the Government and define a budget.

Some media give a minimal advantage to the Republican party, with barely 219 seats. Although these are hardly predictions, this would mean 6 seats less for President Biden's party. Undoubtedly, a painful defeat (becoming a minority in the Chamber), but with much more positive results than the historical ones of the Government party.

A Senate in we will see.

One of the reasons why Democrats celebrate the "defeat of the red tide" is precise because of the results in the Senate. Prior to the elections, Republicans and Democrats had divided the Upper House: 50 and 50 for each side. However, by law, any vote would be broken by Vice President Kamala Harris. In this way, it was a de facto liberal chamber. Precisely, Trump's party sought to take the majority, even for one more position.

Although it is still impossible to define who gets the majority, the results are encouraging for the elephant party. Mainly because John Fetterman won one of the Pennsylvania seats, defeating Mehmet Oz. This chair was in the hands of the Republicans and a small advantage gives them an encouraging picture.

In the absence of the results in Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, the Democrats have 46 seats, plus 2 allied independents, while the Republicans add 47 (or 48). To determine the winners in such close elections, recounts are expected in these 3 states that the Democrats had already won. Even in Georgia, because Raphael Warnock has not exceeded 50% of the vote (and does not seem to achieve it), there should be a second round against Republican Herschel Walker next month. Democrats need to retain 2 of the 3 seats to win 50% of the Senate. This electoral battle will have the attention of the entire country.

However, this is a clear sign that the predictions of a Trump steamroller that directs the next republican election, were halfway. If the Liberals maintain control of the Senate, they will be able to set up positions in the Supreme Court and other important positions in the high government. Thus, avoiding the blocking of nominees caused by the Republicans when Obama was in the presidency and the GOP (Great Old Party, as the conservatives, are known) had both Chambers. Today, in a scenario where the Supreme Court has a conservative majority and has eliminated progressive rights, such as the national right to abortion, it is a prized booty.

Blue Governors

Today the United States has 2 more Democratic governors. Victories in Maryland and Massachusetts were important regional strongholds for the ruling party. Although there are still 4 key states to define. However, the most anticipated victory of the night was that of the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis. The Republicans swept almost 60% of the votes (with 98% counted). De Santis is expected to run for president in the upcoming elections and is surely the politician with the best chance of beating Trump in the primaries.

It also happened with Greg Abbott, who defeated Beto O'Rourke 55% to 43.6%. Abbott is Trump's other possible presidential contender. In this way, DeSantis and Abbott maintain 2 of the 4 most populous states in the hands of the Republicans. Otherwise, the Democrats held important governorships, such as in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Mexico.

Biden and Trump, Are Equal Winners, Equal Losers.

Both former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden have reason to celebrate and worry. On the one hand, Trump will most likely have won seats in the House, which would give the Republican Party a majority. But the Senate is in dispute and there was no so-called "red wave" that would take large majorities.

On the other hand, although the president is not playing for his position in these elections, it is true that the "MidTerm" always serves as a referendum of support or rejection of the president. What the unofficial results left behind is that Biden has not lost as much electoral support as was thought, that his Democratic base remains faithful and despite losing some positions, he won others (such as the Senate seat in Pennsylvania). Despite the fact that it carries the ballast of a criticized government and with Donald Trump active and campaigning for several months, the country remains equally divided and the 2024 elections do not yet have a clear favorite.