It Seems that the Unusual Climatic Phenomena of 2022 will not let up Much in 2023, According to Scientific Reports. What Can you Expect?.
LatinAmerican Post | David Rivadeneira Soto
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Leer en español: Los fenómenos climáticos que se predicen para el 2023
We must prepare to start 2023 with a fairly high projection in the continuity of the meteorological phenomenon called La Niña. Three years would be completed with an extended version of this climatic event, which affects the most vulnerable and hits those regions that have not prepared for such long rainy seasons. The experts of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), through its World Centers for the Production of Long-Term Forecasts, indicate what projections can be expected for one more season.
According to the entity of meteorological specialists, it is the third time since 1950 that the La Niña phenomenon has occurred consecutively for three years and the first time that it occurs in the 21st century. The particular event has led to an estimate, according to the predictions of the models and the evaluations of the WMO experts, that the probability that the La Niña episode will continue the rest of December and until February 2023 is 75 %. Additionally, during the period between January and March, the organization considers that this percentage will decrease to 60%, which is still high.
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The WMO, attached to the UN, explains that the phenomenon known as La Niña occurs when the surface of the Pacific Ocean cools on a large scale in the eastern and central part of the equatorial region, together with atmospheric changes such as winds, pressure, and precipitation. For his part, faced with these prolonged La Niña seasons that have been coming since September 2020, Petteri Taalas, the organization's secretary general, commented that the persistence of this climatic event "is prolonging the conditions of drought and floods in the affected regions.”
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Likewise, in a United Nations newsletter, Secretary Taalas warned about the future in the medium term, warning that "the last (sic) eight years are going to be the hottest on record while the increase in sea level and the warming of the oceans has accelerated". Meanwhile, as noted, the end of this La Niña episode is forecast, in a high percentage, beyond the first quarter of 2023.
After the rains: Possible neutrality in the middle of 2023?
The WMO World Long-Range Forecast Production Centers predict a period of relative neutrality with respect to La Niña and its counter El Niño event. These forecasts base their results on models and analysis by experts from various parts of the world and project for the period from March to May a 70% probability of neutral conditions in the climate afterwards; that is, there will be no excess rainfall, but neither will it be too dry and hot.
For Emel Vega, director of the master's degree in meteorology at the National University, and Germán Poveda, an expert in water resources engineering and climatology, in statements to the newspaper El Tiempo, despite the forecasts of the UN organization, it is prudent to any case, wait until the months of April and May 2023 to know with certainty the response of the climate, since it is in this period that the El Niño phenomenon begins to manifest itself. For Vega, there is still a good chance that an El Niño episode will occur due to the strong dissipation of the energy contained in the oceans and at the poles.
What's coming: El Niño?
However, on the side of the study of data from previous seasons, it is recorded that after extensive and continuous stages of the La Niña phenomenon, the opposite version, El Niño, has not been found to occur with the same duration and intensity. This is how José Manuel Gálvez, a research meteorologist and instructor at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office of the United States (NOAA) expresses it, also to El Tiempo.
Under this scenario, then it is expected, with probabilities of 60 to 75%, that the rains due to the La Niña phenomenon will continue until March 2023, and then a relative climate neutrality without prominent accentuation. To continue carrying umbrellas for the first quarter of next year.