The Increasing Intensity of South American Soccer World Cup Qualifying
Six direct berths plus one playoff spot remain. South America now faces intense competition to reach the 2026 World Cup. Top teams with eager underdogs join a strict struggle for qualification. Each point matters as final rounds near this critical contest.
Qualified and Leading: Argentina Sets the Pace
Argentina has already punched their ticket to the 2026 World Cup, becoming the first South American team to qualify mathematically. The defending world champions sit atop the CONMEBOL standings with 31 points from 14 matches, a tally no chasing team can catch with four games remaining. Backed by captain Lionel Messi, Argentina has led South American qualifying, with few hiccups and major away wins at Brazil and Uruguay. They clinched a top-six finish in March after a 0-0 draw between Uruguay and Bolivia guaranteed them at least sixth place. Argentina celebrated. They beat Brazil 4-1 in Buenos Aires on the same day. That win showed their strength.
With qualification safe, Argentina meets the next matches with fewer worries. They must keep their pride and drive alive. They face key games, including a trip to Chile plus a home match with Colombia in June. Even as they experiment with rotations or nursing veteran stars, La Albiceleste will influence the race. For example, they host Venezuela and visit Ecuador in the final window, matches that could affect those teams’ fates. Argentina’s campaign has set the bar high, and now the focus shifts to which other South American sides will join them in North America 2026.
Strong Contenders Eyeing Direct Berths
Four teams hold spots in the top six. Yet none may stop working. Ecuador is second with 23 points. This was a good result because they began with a 3-point penalty by FIFA. La Tri’s success has been built on defensive solidity (only five goals conceded in 14 matches) and capitalizing on their notorious home advantage at altitude in Quito. Barring a collapse, Ecuador is on track to qualify – two more wins would likely secure their spot. That said, a tricky schedule awaits: in June, they host Brazil in the thin air of Quito and later welcome Argentina on the final matchday. Ecuador will leverage the altitude and recent strong form to clinch their place before that last game.
Uruguay, currently third on goal difference with 21 points, also looks poised to return to the World Cup, but they have work to do. Under coach Marcelo Bielsa, La Celeste has been challenging to beat (only three losses) but has drawn six times, leaving them just one point above the playoff zone. A scoreless draw away to Bolivia at the 4,150-meter altitude of El Alto in March showed Uruguay can grind out results even in extreme conditions. Their remaining fixtures are favorable: Uruguay travels to face direct rival Paraguay next, then plays two winnable home games against Venezuela and Peru. If they care for business, the two-time champions should comfortably finish in the top six. A final trip to Chile awaits in September, but Uruguay hopes to secure its qualifications by then.
After an up-and-down campaign, Brazil finds itself in an unfamiliar position—only fourth with 21 points. The five-time world champions have already lost five matches, contrasting with their unbeaten 2022 qualifying run. A heavy 4-1 loss to Argentina in Buenos Aires highlighted Brazil’s vulnerability. Still, Brazil’s star-studded squad is expected to get the job done, and their qualification odds remain high. Given some tricky fixtures ahead, they have a six-point cushion above seventh place but can’t afford complacency.
Brazil must travel to two high-altitude venues: Quito and La Paz. An early-June visit to Ecuador’s capital (2,850m elevation) and a final-day match in Bolivia’s thin air pose accurate tests for a team used to sea-level conditions. On the bright side, Brazil will host Paraguay in June and Chile in September – games where they’ll be favored. Suppose the Seleção can avoid any altitude upsets and rediscover their attacking rhythm. In that case, they should clinch one of the six automatic berths, extending their perfect record of qualifying for every World Cup.
Paraguay has emerged as a dark-horse contender, currently fifth with 21 points (level with Uruguay and Brazil). This is a remarkable resurgence for La Albirroja, who has not qualified for the World Cup since 2010. Solid defense and timely goals have kept Paraguay in the hunt – they’ve only conceded 9 times so far. Paraguay boosted their prospects with a strong March window, including a valuable 2-2 draw away to Colombia. They sit inside the top six and, as CONMEBOL observers note, the “top six in the table are in a powerful position” heading into the run-in.
Paraguay’s remaining schedule will challenge them. In June, they hosted Uruguay in an essential game in Asunción and then played a difficult match in Brazil. They also meet Ecuador in September, a game that might change the ranks. Paraguay probably needs more wins to avoid dropping to seventh, though hope stays high. If they win the match against Uruguay while getting points in their other games, Paraguay could earn a direct World Cup spot—something that seemed unlikely a year ago.
Battle on the Bubble: Playoff in Sight
The fight for the critical sixth and seventh positions is far from settled. Colombia currently occupies sixth place, the last direct qualification spot, with 20 points. It’s a precarious position – one point above the Intercontinental playoff berth and five points clear of chasing teams. Colombia’s campaign has been uneven; they’ve shown flashes of quality (such as a victory over Brazil earlier in the cycle) but have also dropped points in key moments. A home draw with Paraguay in the last matchday kept Los Cafeteros from pulling further ahead of the pack.
Colombia will use two home games to secure their spot versus the bottom teams, Peru plus Bolivia. Win those matches – they reach 26 points, which should get them into the top six. They face a tricky trip in June to Argentina. If Colombia fails, it may bring a tense end – their last game is an away match versus Venezuela. That neighbors’ duel could directly decide whether Colombia goes to the World Cup automatically, heads to a playoff, or misses out entirely. The pressure is on Colombia to avoid any slips before that final match.
Venezuela sits in seventh with 15 points, currently holding the inter-confederation playoff spot. The Vinotinto have never reached a World Cup, but the expanded format has given them a golden opportunity to make history. Consistency has improved—Venezuela has lost only five times in 14 games, and a 1-0 win over Peru in March kept their dream alive.
However, Venezuela likely needs a spectacular finish to grab a top-six spot outright. They trail Colombia by five points, meaning they must engineer at least two more wins in the last four games while hoping Colombia or others falter. The June window will be crucial: Venezuela hosts Bolivia in a must-win home match, then travels to Uruguay a few days later. Beating Bolivia would boost their tally to 18 and build momentum. The trip to Montevideo will be tough – Venezuela will aim to steal at least a point there to stay in contention.
In September, Venezuela faces an even taller order: an away date with Argentina, who may be relaxed but remain formidable, followed by that potential do-or-die home finale against Colombia. Realistically, Venezuela might target the playoff as their best chance; holding seventh place would send them to a March 2026 intercontinental playoff. Still, coach Fernando Batista’s squad will fight to close the gap on sixth. A first-ever World Cup berth is the prize, and Venezuela’s blend of experienced names, Salomón Rondón, scored the winner against Peru. Young talent gives fans genuine hope, albeit tempered by the problematic fixtures ahead.
Bolivia is clinging to an outside chance from eighth place with 14 points. Historically strong at home and weak away, Bolivia’s campaign has followed that script – all four of their wins have likely come at the high altitude of La Paz or El Alto. During earlier rounds, they’ve already upset a couple of mid-tier teams at home and even put 3-0 and 4-0 scorelines on the board in La Paz. Bolivia must erase a five-point gap and pass several teams in four matches to reach a playoff spot. This is very hard for La Verde. Their upcoming schedule offers some hope: two home games, where Bolivia’s high altitude gives them an edge, plus two away games against teams facing challenges.
In June, Bolivia travels to Venezuela for a direct duel—a win there would bring them level on points with the Vinotinto. They then return to the Estadio Hernando Siles (La Paz) to host Chile, a match they will expect to win given Chile’s form. Come September, Bolivia will visit Colombia in Barranquilla, a tricky tropical away fixture, and finish at home against Brazil.
That final game could be a spoiler’s dream: if Brazil still needs a result, the Bolivians would love to repeat famous upsets of the past in La Paz’s extreme altitude. For Bolivia to grab seventh, they likely need at least three wins out of four – a near-perfect run. While mathematically possible, it would require Bolivia to do something they haven’t done in decades: win multiple away games. Their hopes are slim, but the prospect of playing pressure-free and using the altitude factor means Bolivia cannot be entirely written off yet.
Fading Hopes for the Trailing Duo
Two traditional nations, Peru and Chile, languish at the bottom of the table on 10 points each. Neither is technically eliminated, but their chances of qualifying are on life support. For either to reach even the playoff spot, they would need a perfect finish and favorable results elsewhere – a scenario bordering on miraculous given their current form.
An anemic attack and near misses have defined Peru’s campaign.
Los Incas have scored only six goals in 14 matches, the lowest output in the conference. That lack of firepower has seen Peru draw winnable games and suffer eight defeats. A mid-March draw in Venezuela and a 1-0 loss in Maturín typified their struggles to capitalize on opportunities. To have any hope, Peru must win all four of their remaining fixtures, which would lift them to 22 points, and pray that 22 is enough for sixth. It’s a daunting task: their June schedule sends them to Colombia’s hot coastal home in Barranquilla, and then they host a tough Ecuadorian side in Lima.
In September, Peru traveled to Montevideo to face Uruguay and then closed at home against Paraguay. On paper, Peru could spoil Paraguay’s party on the final day, but only if they are still in the race by then. The 2018 World Cup participants appear to be in transition after the golden era under Ricardo Gareca; a new generation has not yet hit its stride. Barring a sudden turnaround and an unlikely combination of results, Peru is staring at early elimination.
Chile likewise faces an almost impossible path. The Chileans – back-to-back Copa America champions in 2015 and 2016 – are in danger of missing a third straight World Cup. An aging golden generation and lack of squad renewal have seen La Roja struggle throughout the qualifiers. Chile has managed just two wins (both at home) and has a goal difference of -12. They, too, can only max out at 22 points by winning their last four, but their remaining fixture list is brutal. In June, Chile hosts Argentina in Santiago, a classic rivalry match in which they must somehow topple the continent’s top team and then travel to Bolivia’s altitude. At this venue, Chile historically suffers to play in La Paz.
Also Read: South American Soccer Qualifiers’ Top Scorers and Epic Qualifying Showdowns
September brings an away match in Brazil and a home finale against Uruguay. In other words, Chile would need to defeat at least two of South América’sAmerica’s giants (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay) and win in high-altitude La Paz – all in quick succession – to have a shot. It’s a virtually unimaginable scenario, given their performances so far. Chile’s proud veterans like Arturo Vidal and Alexis Sánchez have fought hard, but time and again, the results have fallen short. Barring a dramatic late miracle, Chile will soon join Peru in being effectively (if not yet mathematically) out of the running.
