Correa´s candidate headed for victory in Ecuador presidential runoff

The latest release of public opinion polls ahead of next Sunday's (April 2) presidential runoff in Ecuador show the ruling party candidate Lenin Moreno winning by a margin of 4.5 percentage points. The Cedatos poll conducted between March 18th and 21st, showed the ruling party candidate with 52.4% of the vote compared to opposition leader Guillermo Lasso‘s 47.6% (a 4.8% difference).

 The poll also indicated that 9.5% of the population will vote null and 3.3% will vote blank. 16% of respondents say they yet to make a decision. Cedatos used a sample of 4,476 people in the 23 provinces of Ecuador, with a margin of error of +/- 3.4% and a confidence level of 95%.

Other recent opinion polls, such as Opinión Pública Ecuador (Public Opinion Ecuador), Perfiles de Opinión (Opinion Profiles) and Market, also found that current president Rafael Correa’s handpicked candidate would be the winner in the second round that will be held on April 2nd.

According to Public Opinion Ecuador, 46.5% would vote for Moreno and 34.4% for banker Lasso, in a survey conducted on 1,885 people between March 11th and 12th.

Opinion Profiles consulted 2,032 citizens on March 17th, 18th and 19th, and the results showed that 49.37% would choose Moreno and 36.35% Lasso.

Market polled 2,240 people between March 19th and 20th, and stated that 48.9% would vote for Moreno, and 45% for Lasso.

The results of the four companies, as well as Cedatos, reflect the “total votes”, that is, they contemplate the inclusion of null and blank votes.

Guillermo Lasso, former governor of Guayas province, is facing former vice president Lenin Moreno. Rafael Correa will be stepping down after ten years of heading the Ecuadorian nation, and heading to Europe to pursue a career in academia. However Correa has warned that if his candidate is defeated he will remain in Ecuador to ensure that the socialist reforms of his government are not overturned or reversed.

Correa and Moreno's incumbent party have sufficient support in the one chamber legislative to sustain policies or if not call for fresh elections.