Is China the Future Of Afghanistan?

With A Consolidated Government On the Ground And In Practice, the Taliban Is Looking For Allies In the International System In Order To Achieve Official Recognition.

Xi Jinping

The Asian giant, in the midst of its expansionist interests, sees the change of government in Afghanistan as an unbeatable opportunity. Photo: UNFCCC Flickr

LatinAmerican Post | Santiago Gómez Hernández

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Leer en español: China: ¿la nueva superpotencia en Afganistán?

With the fall of the Afghan government and the seizure of power by the Taliban, a new era is coming to the country. In addition to resolving domestic political issues, its leaders must also build diplomatic relations, international recognition, cooperation programs, and financing. For now, the most important ally they have found is Russia.

The Asian giant, in the midst of its expansionist interests, sees the change of government in Afghanistan as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, because a government allied to the United States falls.

The Xi Jinping government recently announced the shipment of $ 31 million worth of vaccines, medicines, supplies and food for the coming winter.

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The Taliban know that they have to maintain a moderate discourse in the implementation of Sharia or Islamic law. Its secrecy in the 2000's, was also one of the reasons why the United States and its allies decided to invade the country, seeing ineffectiveness, complacency, and even complicity with the terrorist groups operating in their territory.

What does Afghanistan gain?

The country was left with a devastated economy thanks to the civil war that has been destroying finances, infrastructure, and the social fabric for decades. Now more than ever, the new government needs international cooperation.
China can not only serve as a godfather to the international system, it can also be a great financial support and for the reconstruction of the country. Especially when the doors of international banks are closed due to the mistrust generated by the new Kabul government and the sanctions that may come from the West.

What does China gain?

Chinese pragmatism is ideal for finding an ally in Afghanistan. A friendly government on its western frontier is perfect for the expansionist interests of the superpower. China has border interests that it disputes with India and one more ally in the area never hurts.

Additionally, Afghanistan can also represent a business opportunity for Chinese companies. In terms of infrastructure, cooperation, telecommunications and many more, the Central Asian country would have a source of financing in China.

Clearly, the terrorist presence in Afghanistan is a cause for concern. Even more so when the Chinese government itself has launched a reeducation campaign with the Uighur Muslim minority, which is classified as a violation of human rights by various international organizations.

For this reason, China has linked economic support to Afghanistan, as long as there is a guarantee of security and zero tolerance for terrorist groups.

What does Russia gain?

Russia understands that all the options were unfavorable to its interests. There were few decisions between having a government allied to the United States or one allied to China in a country to the south. But their greatest fear is the reappearance or reinforcement of jihadist groups. Being so close to its region in the Caucasus and its former Soviet republics, terrorist influence can have serious consequences in Russia itself.
Chechen jihadist groups are one of the main threats that Putin faces.

What does the United States gain?

After acknowledging the defeat in the invasion of Afghanistan, the United States has the opportunity to have a new rapprochement with the Taliban government. Obviously, the internal politics of a government that goes against various freedoms and rights of women can be a problem of internal politics in Washington. However, isolationism and the severance of diplomatic relations with Kabul would leave the United States in a difficult situation when fighting terrorist groups that continue to pose a threat to internal security.