Trump 2024: The Path Forward

Joe Biden has not been in the White House for a year, but the list of his possible 2024 competitors is already growing. On the Democratic side, the tradition is for the current president to run for reelection once, so the party will try to close ranks around Biden. However, the age of the Democratic politician was a subject of debate during the elections in 2020 and next elections there may be a new candidate for the donkey party.

On the Republican side, the options are more, in theory. Anyone will be able to participate in the primary elections where dozens of politicians normally compete. However, the power and influence of former President Donald Trump are undeniable.

He has many "Pros". He is the Republican with the highest number of votes cast in the entire history of the party, reaching more than 74 million. Plus, he has a rabid fan base. He is a "rockstar" and the power of his appeal is transcendent. So much so that many link it to the assault on the Capitol carried out by his followers on January 20, 2021.

Many experts already believe that the Republican party is now Trump's party, period.  So far this year, the former president has already raised more money (82 million dollars) than the party collected for next year's legislative elections.

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However, Trump is no longer an “outsider” and 4 years in Washington DC have left him exposed on various fronts, so he will have several technical obstacles for his eventual campaign. First of all, he fights censorship on various social networks due to his unproven allegations of alleged electoral fraud. This is why he has tried to create a communications network from his website.

He may have to leverage traditional media more than he did during his first elections and tenure. Here Fox News will be a key piece in determining how much power they give to the former president.

Likewise, he will have to answer for several investigations that he and his family face for possible fraud, sexual harassment, interference with justice, among others. The cases are long, but there is also a lot going on between now and 2024. Although we must not forget the team of lawyers that the tycoon has.

The controversial millionaire also has against him several polls of Americans who consider it a bad idea for him to be a candidate again. Obviously, for Trump, polls always tend to underestimate his voting power. However, Trump only needs to repeat the path that led him to the White House: sweep the primaries among his most loyal voters and then seek support in key and less populated states.

Win battles to win the war

Between now and the primary elections there is time, but also many elections that may clear up the picture. Both primary elections to small offices, internal elections in the Republican party and legislative elections. Trump must continue to measure his electoral flow in each of these elections in order to have loyal members within the Party.

If Trump and the Trumpists manage to control key states and legislatures (state and national), the road to the Trump 2024 candidacy will be as smooth as butter.

According to The Atlantic , this is precisely what the construction magnate is waiting for to make his candidacy official. When Congress holds its midterm elections in 2022, depending on whether there are Republican and Trumpist victories, the former president will be able to make his political intentions public.

However, the first Trump soldiers are already beginning to fall. Susan Wright, widow of Congressman Ron Wright (killed by COVID-19) lost her vacancy to fill her husband's position to Jake Ellzey, a moderate republished candidate. Both Republicans competed in the second round, and despite Donald Trump's express support for Wright, this only got 46.8% of the vote, against 53.2% for Ellzey.

These will now be the elections that will define Trump's real possibilities to compete, win his party's primaries and have enough power to achieve the unexpected: defeat the president-elect with the most votes in United States history with more than 81 million votes.