United Kingdom: Brexit’s biggest loser
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The country will leave the European Union and begin a transition process in March 2019. Experts are still unaware of the seriousness of this political moment
When Theresa May used Article 50 to withdraw the United Kingdom from the European Union, probably no one imagined how complex would be the political and economic scenario to which the country would submit.
Leer en español: Reino Unido: el gran perdedor del Brexit
The Brexit is at a crucial moment between the negotiations, the political acceptance and the conditions that the United Kingdom will experience during the transition period. As reported by La Vanguardia, December is the month where the European Parliament and the House of Commons will vote. With this, the Brexit gambles between an agreement and a non-agreement.
Theresa May, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, has a draft of the agreement with Brussels that consists of 585 pages, 185 articles, and three protocols, but this does not guarantee anything. Both members of the Conservative Party and the Labor Party have different offers at the table that complicate the May agreement. This is reported by BBC
Conservative deputy Mark Francois, called first to "accept the political reality" says the aforementioned newspaper. In addition, the deputy considered "mathematically impossible that the draft agreement of Brexit goes ahead in the House of Commons."
"I plead with you to accept the political reality of the situation you now face"
Conservative MP Mark Francois says it's mathematically impossible to get the draft #Brexit deal through the House of Commons
Live updates: https://t.co/x82eDksQEU pic.twitter.com/GyJ9ojSLue
— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) 15 de noviembre de 2018
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Now, what is the worst possible scenario? Since 2016 the consequences of the United Kingdom will be discussed if it leaves the European Union, with or without agreement. Just a few months of the transition process, the scenario is undoubtedly fraught with uncertainty.
The consequences are unpredictable. Issues such as trade, regulation and, immigration generate great political and economic uncertainty for both the United Kingdom and the EU, as indicated by Newsweek.
In the short term, specialists believe that the United Kingdom will have the most negative consequences due to the close relationship between its GDP and its participation in the common market. In the long term, the balance of consequences may vary for both economic blocks. London could lose its status as a global financial center, as it could be an attractive destination for investors seeking to compete with the EU.
From the perspective of the European Union that already negotiated with London the stay in the customs market during the transition process, there is uncertainty regarding its four freedoms: freedom of flow of people, capital, merchandise and, services, according to La Vanguardia.
London, with enough pressure from its political force, could choose to be a Norwegian case by staying in the European Economic Area, even if that means accepting certain rules on the part of the union.
The United Kingdom made a decision in 2016 that only three years later begins to see consequences. At this point of the Brexit, other measures such as a second referendum, elections in the United Kingdom and even extension of the transition process require a negotiation between London and Brussels.
The future problems are not only of an international nature but could also affect the structure of the country internally. The question remains in the air how is the participation of Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland before the Brexit and if this could mean a boom of separatist movements when globalization bets to the contrary.
LatinAmerican Post | Diana Ramos
Translated from: 'Reino Unido: el gran perdedor del Brexit'
