Cuba’s Tourism Crisis: A Long Road to Recovery

Cuba’s tourism sector faces what economist José Luis Perelló names a lost decade. In an interview with EFE, Perelló says that visitor numbers from before the pandemic will not reappear until 2030 because of long-established economic errors along with strategic mistakes.

A Slow Recovery and a Missed Forecast

Cuba’s reliance on tourism as its economic engine has long been a gamble, and now, experts say, the country is paying the price for strategic miscalculations. According to José Luis Perelló, one of Cuba’s most respected tourism analysts, visitor numbers will take at least six more years to return to pre-pandemic levels.

Perelló’s projections are not speculative but based on decades of data. As he details in his upcoming book, The Cuban Tourism: Industry Evolution, Challenges, and Prospects, co-written with Professor Paolo Spadoni from Augusta University in the U.S., historical trends show that even during peak growth periods, annual increases in tourist arrivals never exceeded 10.65%.

“The highest annual growth was during the U.S.-Cuba thaw under President Barack Obama,” Perelló told EFE. “At that rate, we would reach around 4.5 million visitors by 2030.”

Before the pandemic, Cuba’s tourism sector had already begun to falter. Visitor numbers peaked in 2018-2019, with a record 4.7 million tourists. In stark contrast, only 2.2 million arrived in 2024, the worst figure in 17 years (excluding the COVID-19 years of 2020 and 2021).

Cuba’s government has long depended on tourism to sustain its economy, especially since the 1990s economic crisis following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Although the state maintained its investment, the industry always fell short of the government’s goals.

A Costly Overinvestment in Hotels

One of Cuba’s most disputed tourism strategies in recent years has been the rapid creation of luxury hotels, which sometimes meant not fixing larger economic issues. The Cuban military-controlled conglomerate GAESA owns these hotels, while international chains such as Spain’s Meliá and Iberostar and Canada’s Blue Diamond manage their operations.

During the Obama-era thaw, Cuba recorded its highest-ever tourism revenue. However, Perelló believes the Cuban government made a critical misstep by over-relying on American tourists. When Trump reinstated harsh sanctions, the expected influx of visitors collapsed.

“That was a huge mistake,” Perelló told EFE. “No one can predict the future, but betting so heavily on U.S. tourism left Cuba vulnerable when policies changed.”

Meanwhile, critics argue that continuing to pour resources into luxury hotels in a struggling economy is wasteful. With hotel occupancy rates hovering around 30%, the logic behind these investments is questionable.

Perelló argues that what Cuba has is not a well-planned tourism strategy, but rather a speculative real estate venture.

“There is no comprehensive tourism development plan,” he explained. “What exists is a hotel investment plan focused on real estate. Foreign chains continue to take on hotels in Cuba despite low occupancy rates because this is more about real estate assets than tourism interests. These investments serve to boost stock value rather than meet tourist demand.”

Beyond misplaced priorities, Perelló highlights another overlooked issue: the lag in hotel construction timelines.

“When a U.S.-Cuba thaw happens, if you only start thinking about building hotels at that moment, it’s already too late,” he told EFE. “That’s exactly what happened. The thaw came in 2016, but the hotels weren’t ready. Cuba hit 4.7 million visitors that year and didn’t have enough rooms to accommodate them. Then the investment came, but the demand was already fading.”

The Multidestination Model

Perelló states that if Cuba wants to boost its tourism, it must follow a strategy that covers several destinations instead of drawing visitors from their own countries.

A main problem remains the lack of flight links to Havana, which stops guests from coming. “Cuba should focus on integrating into a wider regional tourism circuit rather than trying to attract visitors directly,” Perelló explained to EFE.

Unfortunately, Cuba’s current tourism policies are not aligned with this vision.

“I don’t think the government is moving towards a multi-destination model,” he noted. “It is sticking to the outdated strategy of drawing tourists from their home countries, which is much harder to achieve in today’s environment.”

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As Cuba faces mounting economic struggles, its tourism sector—once seen as the nation’s economic lifeline—remains in crisis. Without a significant shift in strategy, the road to recovery will be long and uncertain.