A solution to avoid a war in Ukraine
Given the tension between Russia and the West, many propose mandatory neutrality to avoid a war in Ukraine
LatinAmerican Post | Santiago Gómez Hernández
The tension between Russia and the West over a possible conflict in Ukraine seems to grow every day. Intentions to resolve this conflict through diplomatic channels seem to be in vain. Neither the trip of Emmanuel Macron, President of France, to Russia nor the mediations of different organizations have cooled the panorama and many fear a military resolution.
Neither the United States, Europe, nor Russia, much less Ukraine, are in the best interest of a violent conflict involving one of the military powers, with nuclear power and the largest army in Europe. However, everyone must be prepared for the worst and that is why, for example, the United States has preferred to avoid a direct conflict and withdrew its troops from Ukraine, while reinforcing the country militarily. This, with the intention that there would be no confrontation between American and Russian soldiers and that this would lead to a much greater problem.
Despite Putin insisting that an invasion of Ukraine is unlikely, the mobilization of 100,000 Russian troops to the southwestern border cannot be coincidental. The West has already asked its citizens to evacuate Ukraine in the face of a possible attack and the Ukrainian government itself has increased its military power with the support of several countries.
There are several possibilities that are handled to avoid a direct confrontation. The BBC has considered the 5 possible diplomatic alternatives, since the reopening of negotiations in Minsk for Ukraine to reach an agreement with the separatist movements in the East; until reaching a current status quo, where the tension is maintained, but an attack does not start.
Faced with this uncertain and worrying panorama, many experts are looking for possible non-violent solutions and the answer could be a little further north of Ukraine: Finland. Well, it turns out that after the Second World War, Finland and the Soviet Union signed a treaty in which the northern country undertook to combat any attempt to invade Russia that passed through its territory and, in addition, to maintain international neutrality.
This prohibited Finland from joining NATO, to keep the Soviet Union quiet. In exchange, the Finns were able to remain independent and avoid a Soviet invasion, as was the case with most nations in Eastern Europe.
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However, this alternative has several critics. Finland itself is one of the main voices against "Finnishing" Ukraine. For the northern European country, it means giving up its autonomy and freedom in international politics.
However, despite the criticism that there is in reference to granting decision-making power to Moscow, the consequences of maintaining high tension between various powers, the risk is unimagined.
To understand this measure, you have to look at the Russian scene. Putin and his government see serious risks to their national security by having a neighbor like Ukraine enter into the largest and most hostile military pact to their interests. If Ukraine enters NATO, Ukraine would not only be the site of enemy military exercises, but also a base where long, medium, and short-range missiles can be located that put several population centers at risk, such as Volgograd, Rsotov, Krasnodar, Voronezh, and the recently annexed Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula.
Likewise, NATO will be able to set rules and decide which nations enter or not and what name they enter. Obviously, with an entry from Ukraine, Russia will once again tempt fate and raise its stakes, that is where a real, clear, and responsible treaty that all parties respect is, until now, the only possible alternative to an open conflict. Knowing that the main victim of a military escalation in Ukraine itself, which could also lose part of its territory, as has already happened in Crimea.
Many others do not believe that it will escalate to such an extent and that this long-standing conflict will be resolved in any way short of military intervention. However, betting on this kind of scenario is playing with fire and we have already known that Vladimir Putin, Russian president, is anything but naive and we have already seen that he will not be afraid to annex territories historically linked to Russia. So sooner or later the idea of "Finnishing" Ukraine will have to be on the table and it will be the least painful solution.