Is Brexit approaching without an agreement?

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In the voting last Friday, the British Parliament denied what was proposed by Ma

The offer of the British prime minister, Theresa May, to try to reach an agreement with the stormy exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union, "I am ready to leave the position in advance to guarantee an orderly Brexit," he said. Ambit.

Leer en español: Cero y van tres: ¿Se acerca un Brexit sin acuerdo?

The curious thing is that since the beginning of the negotiations the departure from the country had been considered for March 29, 2019, but that same day the Parliament knocked down the withdrawal agreement in a vote of 344 votes against and 286 in favor.

Faced with a politically weak May and with the warning from the European Union, which proposed the extension of the exit as long as the British Parliament approved the text (something that definitely did not happen), the United Kingdom would have a deadline to carry out its departure next April 12. According to the spokeswoman of the European Union, this date remains as the "probable scenario of it being carried out without an agreement", according to El Tiempo.

Similarly, the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, said in his Twitter account that a European Council will be convened on April 10, where it is expected to talk about the next step for the other European countries.

Meanwhile, for opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn, the solution to Brexit's problem is for the prime minister to resign and fire a general election. This would allow not only to rethink the Brexit but to provoke the possibility of holding a new referendum, in which it can be consulted again if the British really want to make the exit.

Any decision that May tries to take, will have to do it with special caution, since much of what has been said can generate an even greater fracture within his party, causing that the support that until now has had diminishes. Furthermore, as CNBC explains, if elections were held, "the number of opposition legislators in Parliament could be weakened, giving the Conservative Party a stronger mandate to enact Brexit."

In this way, the strategy of the Conservative Party will be essential to resolve the entanglement in which the Brexit became: "if they support us, we will end this mess", according to the same media.

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The stages

After the votes on Friday, this Monday will decide, once again, the direction to take. According to Quartz, in the new round of "indicative votes", which are useful for observing if Parliament steps back, will be crucial for May to proceed to the European Parliament. If a clear agreement is reached, and if the prime minister agrees, there could be an extended deadline.

Otherwise, the options would be for the Brexit to be held on April 12 without an agreement; a new term is canceled or proposed (and which would have to be approved by the European Union). Thus, the United Kingdom will have to participate in the elections of the European Parliament and under these conditions could be postponed, canceled, renegotiated or hold a referendum

The United Kingdom without an agreement

Given the latent possibility of an exit without an agreement, between the United Kingdom and the European Union there would be no established agreements on what their relationship would be like in the future. If the exit is carried out in this way, the border controls would be reintroduced, transport and trade between the United Kingdom and the EU would be difficult.

In addition, to return to the trade rules of the World Trade Organization, it would have to face taxes and tariffs on imports greater than those it is accustomed to. As for immigration, the country would be free to impose its own controls and in the same way, the British would have controls within the countries belonging to the bloc.

However, the conflict with the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic would remain unsolvable. "While the physical infrastructure has been vetoed, the border would become an external border for the EU in the case of a Brexit without agreement. There would be pressure to enforce customs and immigration controls ", as indicated by Inews.

LatinAmerican Post | Laura Viviana Guevara Muñoz

Translated from "Cero y van tres: ¿se acerca un Brexit sin acuerdo?"