Experts speculate that the Korean Peninsula will be disarmed in exchange for the US to do it and reduce its military presence in South Korea
Recently, it was revealed that President Trump and Kim Jong-un have been holding talks for a month and will negotiate at the end of May. "USA has confirmed that Kim Jong-un is willing to discuss the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula", said a representative of the Trump Administration for The Wall Street Journal. The real question is: what is Korea looking for in return for denuclearization?
Kim Jong-un declared that the nuclear disarmament of the Korean Peninsula will depend on South Korea and the US take "progressive and synchronous measures for the realization of peace", quotes the Chinese news agency Xinhua. This indicates that the North Korean leader prepared the conditions that the US and South Korea must accept to leave their nuclear weapons aside. According to analysts, these are some of the reasons for Kim Jong-un to consider denuclearization:
1.The denuclearization of the United States
For North Korea, denuclearization means "mutual steps to get rid of nuclear weapons, including the requirement that the United States eliminate the nuclear umbrella it has placed on South Korea and Japan", says an article in The Washington Post. On the other hand, Trump talks about the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula unilaterally, Trump wants Kim to hand over his nuclear weapons and allows international inspectors to enter to make sure he fulfills the commitment.
"The danger is to enter into negotiations with unrealistic expectations that Kim will simply hand over the keys to his nuclear kingdom. He will not", said Vipin Narang, an expert on nuclear proliferation at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
2.Reduction of US military presence in South Korea
Another reason Kim Jong-un would have to hand over his favorite toys would be a reduction in the US military presence on the Korean Peninsula, said Koh Yu-hwan, a North Korean studies professor at Dongkuk University and one of the president's advisers from South Korea, Moon Jae-in.
According to the ABC international news agency, the meeting between Trump and Kim Jong-un would addressees "North Korea's commitment to denuclearize it in exchange for the US would to do not attack the regime". This issue seems unlikely, because Kim Jong-un has shielded himself in the possession of his atomic weapons "so that Washington does not carry out a regime change like in Iraq, Libya, or the former Yugoslavia".
3.Avoid economic sanctions
The diplomatic actions that Kim Jong-un has dared to execute have a common goal: to avoid economic sanctions at the international level. Under this assumption, it is natural that Kim Jong-Un wants to establish communication with the United States, this country being one of the main promoters of economic sanctions against North Korea to achieve its nuclear disarmament. President Trump said that Kim should negotiate with the rest of the world due to the "maximum pressure" against the North Korean leader.
Kim Jong-un's first step was to visit China, North Korea's main economic ally, with the aim of restoring confidence and breaking the tensions that escalated between the two countries because of Xi Jinping's support in the economic sanctions of the UN, designed to curb North Korea's nuclear programs. It is important to recall that in 2017, the UN imposed three rounds of sanctions on North Korea, the most severe measure was the restriction of almost 90% of the supply of oil and fuel to the Asian regime.
Kim Jong-un also decided to meet with South Korea at the end of April. Analysts agree that the meeting between Moon Jae-in and Kim serves as a preamble to open talks with Trump. South Korea, like China, supports the United States in the UN economic sanctions. On the other hand, the North Korean president should be diplomatic with the south to achieve a positive impact on his image towards the United States.
Despite the apparent willingness of Kim Jong-un to reach an agreement, the intentions behind negotiating the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula are not very clear. "Kim's statement on denuclearization came with preconditions that sound very much like the preconditions that caused previous talks to fail", said Douglas Paal, head of Asia's program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington DC.
On the one hand, the North Korean leader changes his political game establishing diplomatic relations with the main world powers, exposing himself to the world and proposing positive changes. However, it should not be forgotten that negotiating with Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un should be taken with caution.
Latin American Post | María de los Ángeles Rubio
Translated from “Conozca las 3 razones por las que Kim Jon-un entregaría sus juguetes atómicos favoritos”