Without Uribe And With Internal Divisions: The Panorama Of Uribismo 2022

2022 will be a hectic year for the political reality of Colombia, taking into account that two of the most important elections in the country will be held: the legislative elections, which will take place on March 13, and the presidential elections that will take place on May 29.

However, in the absence of fewer than six months for the congressional vote and a little less than eight for the first presidential round, the political landscape is increasingly moving with the constant appointment and fall of characters who may or may not participate in it. electoral competition.

Among the most important names is the former presidential candidate in 2018, Gustavo Petro, as well as the former governor of Antioquia, Sergio Fajardo.

Of course, the candidates of Uribe also have a presence: María Fernanda Cabal, current senator of the Republic, and the former presidential candidate in 2014, Oscar Iván Zuluaga. However, as revealed by the most recent survey carried out by the National Consulting Center (CNC) and Semana magazine, the Uribe representation does not seem to have much force in the face of the 2022 elections.

According to the poll, Petro leads voting intentions with 17%, followed by Fajardo and Juan Manuel Galán with 7% and 6%, respectively. Far behind are María Fernanda Cabal (4%) and Zuluaga (3%). Thus, at the moment the candidates of the Democratic Center do not seem to have the necessary strength to compete for the most important executive position in Colombia.

The 'negative' presence of Iván Duque

Since 2002 when Álvaro Uribe Vélez became the first to reach the presidency of Colombia away from the mantle of the country's traditional parties (Conservative and Liberal), his political group known as 'Uribismo' has been the protagonist in all the elections that have taken place in the last two decades. With three more presidencies (Uribe in 2006, Santos in 2010, and Duque in 2018), this political force has positioned itself as one of the most popular in the country; although it seems that by 2022 it will not arrive with the same force of the past.

One of the reasons for this possible electoral decline is of course the fall that the current president Iván Duque has had in his position as Prime President of Colombia. The 67% unfavorable rate reported in an Invamer survey in August, in addition to its leading role in the midst of the national strike and the crisis generated by COVID-19, has made the President have a bad image among Colombians; and as is logical with him the Democratic Center has also dragged his party.

Without Álvaro Uribe

You cannot speak of Uribe without Uribe, because in addition to giving the movement its name, the former senator also gives shape and image to this group that is embedded in the Centro Democrático party. For this reason, it is a great unknown to know how this community will convince Colombians without the direct presence of Álvaro Uribe in the electoral arena in 2022.

It should be remembered that with Uribe at the top of the list of the Democratic Center in 2014, this party obtained a little more than 2 million votes that placed it as one of the groups with the most presence in the Senate (20 seats). The same situation arose in 2018 when Uribismo was left 19 seats thanks to the 2.5 million votes received.

Now, it is no secret to anyone that many of those positions in the Upper House came through Uribe and his image on the card, so not even party members have hesitated to deny their fear of what they will be. elections, both presidential and legislative, without him in the running.

This situation would force the Democratic Center to seek new alternatives through "foreign" alliances with politicians who, although they do not manifest themselves as Uribistas, do have a direct relationship with the right in the country.

One of them is the former mayor of Medellín, Federico Gutiérrez, who has already received the approval of several strongholds of uribism such as Senator Paloma Valencia, who put into conversation the need to seek alliances away from his party, and Gutiérrez, by showing himself as a Independent candidate would be the best option .

"An alliance will be sought with like-minded people such as former mayor Federico Gutiérrez, former minister Echeverry, former governors, and the Conservative Party, to have a unique candidate from this sector to conquer the Presidency," explained the Senator.

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And perhaps this is the way in which Uribism can sneak into the affections of the people without the participation of Álvaro Uribe since it seems that the internal order of the party is not one of the strongest for 2022. Political tensions Because they knew the only candidate of the Democratic Center, they have even called themselves “shame” among themselves, just as María Fernanda Cabal did when referring to the Uribe party in Congress.

“We are a bank of 52 to which the country only knows five if it knows them at all. The rest, the 52, is a shame. I would like a bench that would really understand the importance of doing permanent activism," Cabal said to Semana magazine.

Uribe himself said that he will not support any candidate in the elections. Knowing that your image adds, but also subtracts support, you may be on the lookout and spend your cartridges wisely and thoughtfully.

Duque's bad image and the internal division in Uribismo could take their toll in the next elections. However, the strength that Uribe still has over his community, whether with his own or "borrowed" candidates, will be the turning point between the resounding success of the Uribe members or their imminent failure.