Once again there is no Brexit

This is the third time that Brexit has been postponed, despite the constant pressure of the Prime Minister, who has repeatedly stated that the process would be done in any way (referring to the possibility of a hard Brexit).

Already the decision of the European Parliament on Monday October 28 gave an indication of how complicated it was going to leave the European Union so abruptly. In this way, the ambassadors of twenty-seven countries reached an agreement to extend the deadline until January 31, 2020, with the possibility that the United Kingdom can leave earlier, as the previous extensions have also stipulated.

It should be remembered that with Brexit, the United Kingdom will become a country that is not part of the European Union, and therefore will not access the benefits or treaties, political or commercial, that govern under the Union. Within the possible scenarios (and one of the most favorable scenarios) is to go out with an agreement, which will have to be evaluated and see what conditions will be provided to reach a mutual agreement. As RTVE explains, there will be a “transitional period until December 31, 2020 in which no change will be applied”.

But if they fail to reach an agreement, the “abrupt” exit would be a scenario that would significantly harm the United Kingdom, as there would be tariff taxes, shortages of medicines and food, added to the fact that the airport and the Eurotunel would present much more control.

In addition, and one of the main concerns, would be the physical border with Ireland. Two territories that have faced each other in the past, and that with the installation of viable conditions influenced between the peace process of these two countries. But if an agreement is not made, the total freedom of movement would be lifted not only for merchandise but also for people.

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New elections

Amid such negativity, last Tuesday the British Parliament approved the prime minister's plan to be able to advance the general elections proposed for December 12.

In them, Johnson is finally expected to have the necessary votes to be able to carry out his exit plan from the European Union. Something he did not achieve with his hurried narrative of accelerating Brexit. This time it may work for the prime minister, since several polling firms, such as YouGov, place the conservative party with 15 points ahead of the Labor Party, according to El País.

What it is played in these elections is very important since both conservatives and the other parties (Labor, Brexit, Democrat, Democratic Unionist Party, among others), will go for the majority of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, which It generates certain possible scenarios.

The first one related to the fact that if the Conservative Party, and in which Boris Johnson militates, wins the majority of the Parliament, it would have it finally approve its exit plan as soon as possible. According to the BBC, his exit method would be a Brexit without an agreement and the United Kingdom would leave the European Union "before the end of the year."

The plan of the Labor party, who are in favor of Brexit, will be to appeal more to the British to consider leaving the European Union as long as certain relations with this entity are maintained. On the other hand, liberal Democrats advocate repealing article 50 and thus stopping Brexit, however several polls profile them in third place.

Although we must bear in mind that the voters who will participate in these elections are different from those who voted in the proposal to leave the United Kingdom. According to Kien and Ké, "two million voters of the elderly, of which the majority are believed to be pro-Brexit, have died since the 2016 referendum."

In addition, it must be borne in mind that around 2.5 million young people are eligible to vote, an important number considering that in the 2016 elections, young people voted to stay in the European Union.

In this way, in the hands of whoever remains the Parliament will be decisive to be able to give an end to this novel that takes more than two years without a concrete solution.